UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Second Leg Predictions Part III

Quick and dirty UEFA Champions League predictions for this week. A bit busy studying for March Madness picks (dorky I know, but give me a break…it comes around only once per year), so this won’t be a long post. Still, I figured you gambling readers out there would want to know who not to pick for the Champions League this week. Judging by my track record, the easiest way to make money this week is simply to pick the opposite of who I pick.

Marseille at Manchester United (teams tied 0-0 in first leg)

One prediction that I can confidently make this week: this game won’t be anywhere near as boring as their first game.

The first leg between these two teams featured a pretty rare event – the home team (Marseille) feeling great about a 0-0 draw. Maybe Manchester United is pleased with the result. After all, Sir Alex loves his 4-5-1 formation for road games. But you get the feeling that the 0-0 draw is exactly what Marseille wanted.

Just ask Man U fans about this. They have been here before. Last season against Bayern Munich, they jumped out to a 3-0 lead in their second leg home game just 41 minutes in to open a commanding 4-2 total goal lead. Two stunning goals later and Bayern moved on to the next round on the away goals rule. Then there was eventual champion Porto’s stunning 90th minute goal at Old Trafford back in the 2004 Round of 16 when Man U looked certain to move on.

Sure, it’s more likely than not that Man U advances with ease. There is no doubt that they are the better team. But Marseille also knows this. They were pleased with the 0-0 draw at home because now they are one fluke goal away and some solid defense away from advancing. If the French squad somehow gets a goal, they will love their chances. You can’t blame them for that, as I certainly wouldn’t trust Man U to put up two goals against a defensive-minded squad given their recent form.

I think Man United wins this one…but not before making their fans sweat with painful flashbacks a little bit. They move on 1-0.

Inter at Bayern Munich (Bayern leads 1-0)

Dead team walking alert!

The best news of the past month is that I finally got a job. With that job, I was able to purchase the expanded sports package on cable, which includes the Fox Soccer Channel. And it’s fantastic.

Having Fox Soccer Channel meant that I watched the Inter/Brescia game last weekend. One game might not be a strong sample size but Inter doesn’t look anywhere near as good as they were last season. Last season, they seemingly could attack from everywhere with Diego Milito and Samuel Eto’o up front, Mario Balotelli on the wings, Wesley Sneijder in the middle, and even Maicon from the back. This season, Balotelli has moved on and Milito, Sneijder, and Maicon have all been completely unable to stay on the pitch. They just seem out of sync with each other and Eto’o seems to be the only one capable of scoring.

I pointed out in my first leg previews that Bayern has become more multi-dimensional than they were last season’s final, when their offense consisted entirely of Arjen Robben trying to weave through an average of 2.3 defenders at a time. Bayern has gained weapons and Inter has lost them. With that said, Eto’o is certainly good enough to single-handedly put in a goal or two and send Inter on. I don’t think that will happen, just covering my bases. Bayern wins 2-1.

Copenhagen at Chelsea (Chelsea won first leg 2-0)

Copenhagen had a golden chance at home in facing a slumping Chelsea squad that seemed incapable of scoring in the weeks heading into the first leg. Instead of taking advantage, they lost 2-0. Talk about demoralizing.

Chelsea figures to play at least some members of their second team with advancement already assured. Even with the second team in, it is hard to envision any way that the floodgates aren’t completely open for the Blues. Chelsea will score as many as they want to. Bodog isn’t even taking odds on Chelsea to advance. Let’s just move on: Chelsea wins 3-0.

Lyon at Real Madrid (teams tied 1-1 in first leg)

Last post, I pointed out that Real Madrid was the more talented team by far. It is really not even particularly close. Yet for some reason Lyon has Real Madrid’s number in the Champions League. Real has been knocked out in the Round of 16 for six consecutive years. Lyon plays the role of bogeyman for Real fans, with good reason, as they are unbeaten in six games against the Spanish side.

This season it looked like Real was finally ready to get the monkey off their back when they jumped out to a 1-0 second half lead in France. Then seven minutes from full time Lyon pulled back within 1-1. Real still has the advantage…but that last goal has to make them doubt themselves a little bit. You don’t lose in the Round of 16 six straight seasons without that doubt creeping in, and nothing is more demoralizing than giving up a late goal in a two-leg total goal series.

I’m going to stick with the heart this time instead of the head. Lyon scores another late goal to tie 1-1, the game eventually goes to penalties, and Cristiano Ronaldo hits the post to send the French side through. Real fans are again devastated and the rest of the football world laughs.

Hey, a man can dream, right?

UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Second Leg Preview Part II

Well it took five rounds of predictions, but I finally get to gloat a little bit. Barcelona (somewhat controversially) knocked off Arsenal 3-1 to advance to the quarterfinals (I predicted a 3-0 victory). Shakhtar did the same, easily dismissing the free-falling Roma squad 3-0 (I predicted a 2-0 victory). Not a bad day at all. Let’s see if I can get lucky again today.

AC Milan at Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs won the first leg 1-0)

Tottenham Hotspur can’t blow this one…right? Like many fans, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. On one hand, they looked every bit like a Champions League title contender in the first leg, when they pulled off a 1-0 upset at Milan. On the other hand, this is the same team that went out and lost to Premier League bottom dweller Blackpool (their only win since January 12) and only managed a 3-3 draw with relegation bound Wolves.

So the only thing we really know about Spurs is that we don’t know what team we are going to see in any given match. They pass the you-never-know test that I just invented: if someone approached you with the score from yesterday’s Spurs match, there is literally no scoreline that could surprise you.

Meanwhile, AC Milan has continued to dominate Serie A this season. They have reeled off four consecutive victories to all but lock up the title. It would take a huge collapse and an equally monster run from Inter to lose the title.

Milan can score and Spurs rarely can stop good attacking teams, so the 1-0 advantage that Spurs take into this match isn’t really all that big of an advantage. Sure, they have the luxury of playing back on their heels with the lead. But even with that going for them, I can’t grasp my mind around Spurs actually putting up two consecutive clean sheets against Milan. I’m sticking with my original prediction: Milan takes this leg 2-1 and advances on away goals. And I’m fully prepared for Spurs to shock me once again.

Valencia at Schalke 04 (teams drew 1-1 in first leg)

In the first leg preview, I spent a lot of time breaking down this game before deciding that Valencia would be too strong for Schalke. I have only one real regret: that I spent that much time analyzing the matchup in the first place.

Every year, the Champions League has at least one clunker in the Round of 16. That award went to the Olympiacos/Bordeaux tie last season. This season, Valencia and Schalke take it. Schalke is a middle of the table Bundesliga team and Valencia is probably the third best team in Spain, for whatever that’s worth. Neither has any realistic shot of winning the entire competition. The only other Round of 16 matchup you can say that about is Shakhtar/Roma, but at least that has this year’s potential Cinderella team in Shakhtar.

As far star power (or lack thereof)? Valencia’s top two scorers are Artiz Aduriz and Roberto Soldado, neither of whom came anywhere close to making Spain’s World Cup team. The closest thing to a star on the German side is former Spanish national team forward Raúl, best known as “the guy who used to be the leader on the Spanish national team before they were any good.” Catchy nickname, I know.

What’s all that mean? It means that I have no confidence in picking either team, so I’ll go with a 1-1 draw. One of the teams will advance on penalty kicks and promptly get destroyed in the quarterfinals.