NFL Divisional Weekend Picks

A fantastic weekend of football coming up in the NFL. Four matchups and not a single clunker. We have games from the two biggest rivalries in the AFC, the two best teams in the NFC, and the luckiest team in the league versus America’s adopted underdog. Here are my picks:

Baltimore (13-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4, -3)

This game is pretty simple: one team is going to win by a field goal. Here are the results of the seven Ravens/Steelers games since Joe Flacco entered the league in 2008 (away team first):

12/5/10 – Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 10
10/3/10 – Baltimore 17, Pittsburgh 14
12/27/09 – Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 23
11/29/09 – Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 20 (OT)
1/18/09 – Baltimore 14, Pittsburgh 23 (playoffs)
12/14/08 – Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 9
9/29/08 – Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 23 (OT)

Five of those seven games were decided by a field goal. And even that’s deceptive. Pittsburgh won by 9 in the 2009 playoffs only after Flacco threw a late TAINT and won by 4 in the 2008 regular season on Ben Roethlisberger’s TD pass with 43 seconds left.

So basically we just have to figure out which team is going to win by three.* Let’s roll through some considerations.

* This could be the first game ever where I’d actually think about taking “push” if someone offered it.

At first I thought that Baltimore might be better than Pittsburgh this year based on their head-to-head matchups. They both finished 12-4 and the Ravens had the season series in the bag in the closing minutes in Pittsburgh in Week 13. The Ravens had the ball facing second and five on their own 43, up 10-6 with 3:20 left. Inexplicably, Joe Flacco drops back to pass.* Troy Polamalu comes around the outside, strips the ball and LaMarr Woodley returns it to the 9-yard line. The Steelers punch it in and steal the division from the Ravens just like that.

* I like going for the win in this situation as much as anybody. But, come on, if you’ve held the opposing team to six points in the first 57 minutes of the game, you absolutely have to run the ball, punt if necessary, and take your chances that they can’t drive for a touchdown in the last two minutes.

But then I looked back to the Week 4 game. Flacco needed to drive the ball forty yards in the last 55 seconds for a last-minute touchdown to give the Ravens a 17-14 win in Pittsburgh. Charlie Batch was at quarterback for the Steelers. Yeah, I’d call the season series a wash.

Then I thought about giving the edge to the Steelers based on the home field advantage. Road teams are 3-4 in this series since 2008 and won both games this season. Another wash.

My favorite tiebreaker in these tight games is which quarterback I trust more. Roethlisberger’s playoff record: 8-2, 2 Super Bowls, 1-0 vs. Ravens. Flacco: 3-2, 0-1 vs. Steelers. Huge advantage for the Steelers. If you’re going to go down with someone, you’d rather it be with Roethlisberger than Flacco. And yes, that was a subtle Big Ben joke.

To top it off, 62% of the public is on the Ravens this weekend – the highest of any team. Enough said. Steelers win 20-17.

Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5, -10)

How quickly things change: just a week ago, fans considered Seattle a joke and I actually picked against them getting 10.5 points at home. A few poor decisions from Sean Payton and one highlight reel Marshawn Lynch touchdown run later, and suddenly the Seahawks are America’s darling and a trendy pick to upset the Bears this weekend.

It’s not difficult to see why. The Seahawks put everything together and looked incredible last weekend against the defending champion Saints. Matt Hasselbeck had the game of his life, throwing for 272 yards and four touchdowns. That was the first time he threw more than two touchdowns in ten career playoff games and only the sixth time he’s thrown four touchdowns in a game since his career began in the late 1970s. And his best receiver was Brandon Stokley. I didn’t know Stokley was still alive. I can only assume is immortal, so that’s another huge advantage for Seattle. Then there’s the 23-20 Seahawk upset victory over the Bears on the road back in Week 6.

Meanwhile, the Bears have Jay Cutler, who holds the record for most times making an entire fan base say “are you shitting me?” in unison. In his defense, he has decreased his interception total from 26 last season to 16 this season. He has compensated for that by increasing his sack total from 35 last year to 52 this year, capped by an insane nine first half sacks against the Giants. Cutler has never won a bowl or a playoff game before. The last time he played in a playoff game of any kind? The 2000 Class 3A Indiana High School State Championship. Again, in his defense, his team won that game…but I think the Bears should pack some extra pants just in case.

This game will come down to which Seahawk team shows up for the game. If it’s the team that struggled to finish 7-9 this season, the Bears win easily. If it’s the team from last week’s Saints game, the Seahawks could actually pull off a second straight huge upset.

Again, I’ll point out the same statistic from last week – the Seahawks either win (8 times) or lose by more than 15 (9 times). Last week, I didn’t think the Seahawks could win outright, so I picked the Saints. This week, I do think the Seahawks can win outright. They’ve already done it once this season and are playing better football now. Naturally, I’ll end up way off, but for now Seattle is the pick. Seahawks win 31-21.

New York Jets (12-5) at New England (14-2, -8.5)

The Jets spent the week trash-talking the Patriots. Antonio Cromartie called Tom Brady an asshole and Rex Ryan called the rivalry personal. Brady shrugged it off, saying that he’s been called worse. Then wide receiver Wes Welker did this at a press conference, presumably as the entire team cracked up behind the curtain:

Call me crazy, but I think the Patriots might come out a tad bit looser than the Jets. The Patriots are already a better team than the Jets – they beat them 45-3 on this same field just a few weeks ago. Trash-talking yourself into a corner might not have been the best approach to this game, although it is certainly the most amusing.

I just can’t see any way the Jets win this game. Of course the last time I said that, I picked the Saints to dominate the Seahawks. If you’ve learned anything so far, you should immediately go put your money on the Jets. The Patriots win 41-14.

Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (12-4, -2.5)

If I couldn’t provide any objective analysis last week, I definitely can’t this week. Am I terrified that #1 seed Atlanta isn’t even favored by the standard 3 points at home? Am I even more terrified that the majority of the public is on the Packers? Am I most terrified that the Packers have become a trendy Super Bowl pick? Yes, yes, and yes. The Packers still win 24-21.

Questionable Coaching Decisions on Wild Card Weekend

I am always amazed at how much preparation an NFL head coach puts into a football game. These guys spend hours upon hours breaking down film and coming up with game plans that will give them any possible edge, however slight. They prepare for seemingly every situation and yet don’t seem to be aware of the Boy Scout-mantra “Always be prepared” for unexpected situations. In both of Saturday’s playoff games, a coach’s bizarre decision altered the course of the game at a key moment.

#1. New Orleans kicks a field goal on 4th and 2 down by a touchdown

Oh Sean Payton – what happened to you? Aren’t you the same guy that’s still featured on commercials for calling for an onside kick to open up the second half of the Super Bowl?

Here’s the situation: down 34-27 with 9:13 left in the game, the Saints faced a 4th-and-2 on the Seattle 3 yard line. Payton sent kicker Garrett Hartley out for the chip shot field goal to pull the Saints within four. The Saints actually do get the ball back one more time, fail to get a first down, then this happens:

and the Seahawks hang on for one of the biggest upsets in recent playoff history.

Two things about this decision. First, the Saints went for it on 4th and inches from their own 39-yard line midway through the third quarter. Um…isn’t that way more dangerous than this situation? Second, anytime your worst case scenario involves giving the ball back to Matt Hasselbeck on his own 3-yard line, still only trailing by a touchdown, isn’t that a fairly safe situation?

This isn’t rocket science – the only smart move in this situation is to go for it. Look at it this way:

If the Saints go for it on 4th down: best case scenario – they tie the game at 34; worst case scenario – they turn the ball over on downs to the Seahawks at their own 3;

If the Saints kick a field goal (assuming he makes the chip shot): best case scenario – they pull within four and pin them deep on the kickoff; worst case scenario – they pull within 4 and the Seahawks get a solid return and are set up in good-field position to clinch the game.

The worst case scenario for the made field goal is actually worse than the worst case scenario if the Saints go for it. All that preparation for the game and then Payton makes a terrible decision at the worst possible time.

#2. Jim Caldwell’s timeout late gives the Jets the game

There’s still three rounds of games left, but I can say with confidence that this will be by far the most egregious decision of the playoffs. Here’s the situation: the Colts are up 16-14 in the closing seconds. Mark Sanchez leads the Jets to the Colts’ 34-yard line with 36 seconds left. The Jets then run the ball up the middle for one yard. They only have one timeout left so it’s pretty clear that the Jets are going to sit on the ball and attempt a 50-yard field goal to win the game.

And then Colts coach Jim Caldwell inexplicably calls his final timeout. Given the gift of an extra timeout, the Jets set up a fairly safe out pattern to Braylon Edwards. The pass is complete to the Colts’ 14-yard line and the Jets run the clock down to three seconds and Nick Folk kicks a 32-yard field goal to send the Jets to the next round. I think Peyton Manning’s reaction to the timeout tells the story:

Now I don’t really have to explain how insane it is to let a team attempt a 32-yard field goal when they were willing to settle for a 50-yard field goal. Rather I’ll just point out that, despite all that preparation that went into this game, Jim Caldwell apparently forgot that the Jets kicker is Nick Folk. The same Nick Folk that the Cowboys waived before the end of the season because he was such a train wreck. The same Nick Folk that is a career 7-for-14 (2-for-5 this season) on kicks 50 yards or longer.

And yet Caldwell says “no thanks” and lets the Jets get 18 yards closer. Folk makes the field goal, the Colts go home, Peyton Manning has a sudden aneurysm, and Jim Caldwell is suddenly on the hot seat. Quite the decision.